The Silent Factor

“The ability to distinguish between volatility and loss is the first casualty of a bear market.”      – Nick Murray, Author of Simple Wealth, Inevitable Wealth

US Stocks officially entered a bear market on June 13th when the S&P 500 closed 22% below its January 3rd high. We’ve been here before.  Only two years ago, Covid-19 caused a panic in equity markets which led to a more than 30% market decline. Those losses were (relatively) quickly reversed as investors realized that both Congress and the Federal Reserve were quickly acting in their favor. Easy monetary policy supported what we can now clearly see, in hindsight, was a speculative market bubble that continued for another two years.

What if a Recession is the Cure?

“Most of the time, the end of the world does not happen. “ — Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management

As we close the first quarter of 2022, all signs point to our economy moving into a new stage of the business cycle. We are past the peak and rolling into the earliest stages of contraction. After laying the groundwork for months, the Federal Reserve Bank officially began raising interest rates earlier this year. Their goal is to dampen inflation which has now increased to alarming levels and is affecting businesses and families across the socioeconomic spectrum. The Fed has most likely taken too long to act, and they are removing stimulus that was too excessive and lasted for too long.  While the Fed’s quick action likely saved our economy from the worst possible outcomes during the pandemic, we are now surrounded by inflation that is having real world impact.  

SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) – A “picks and shovels” investment in Renewable Energy

Company:                                             SolarEdge Technologies Inc

Sector:                                                 Technology – Solar/Alternative Energy

Price/Market Cap:                                 $245/$13.1B

I first encountered SolarEdge in mid-2019 while reviewing a non-Wall Street report on the solar industry ecosystem.  I was reading the report purely out of curiosity. It was only after digging in that I realized there might be some decent investment ideas within the sector. I was not interested in solar panel manufacturers that would be heavily reliant on imported raw materials and subject to fluctuating commodity prices. The installers are services businesses, characterized as cyclicals with high operating costs and scalability headwinds. Cabling is commoditized. But when I read the section about power optimizers and inverters, I had an “Aha!” moment –These are the proverbial “picks and shovels” within the renewable industry. These devices are built using semiconductor technology that I am highly familiar with, and these systems are essentially the “brains” of the solar panels built with technology that can likely be applied to numerous other form factors in and out of the sector. Opportunity. 

The Hidden Tax

Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair. -Sam Ewing (author)

We ended 2021 similar to how we began, challenged by Covid as the virus continues to alter holiday plans, disrupt commerce and frustrate a world weary of the conversation. Covid was supposed to be conquered by this point, but virus mutations and vaccine hesitancy have allowed this visitor to remain with us.  What is different this time around is the Omicron variant appears to be more prevalent, but less deadly. Hospitalization risk appears to be 1/3[3] that of the Delta variant but, given that Omicron is more infectious and has a shorter incubation period, hospitalizations are going up. We began 2022 with an all-time high of 1 million active new U.S. cases.

There’s a Playbook for That

The S&P 500 is up 14.4% for the first half of 2021. Much of these gains were triggered by companies announcing positive earnings expectations for the second half of the year. A record 64% of companies that provided guidance exceeded Wall Street Analyst projections. Most companies have positioned the pandemic in the rear-view mirror and expect things to get better from here.  Meanwhile, the Market continues to hit all-time highs, while Wall Street seems to be overly conservative on future prospects.  The source of caution stems from expected inflation.

Blind Spots

“Bull markets end when the perception of earnings growth disappears […]. Manias, on the other hand, end when the market runs out of buyers.” – Andy Kessler

2020 ended with the world collectively eager to put a challenging year in the rear-view mirror while looking forward to the light at the end of the tunnel. The US election results are now (mostly) behind us, and we have two approved Covid-19 vaccines being distributed in the US with an additional 5 being used in other parts of the world.  What is most surprising to me is, having witnessed a year where we endured the worst global pandemic in a century, the fastest bear market in history, a global recession, and a contentious presidential election; that I would find myself in the same place I was exactly a year ago: contemplating whether the market accurately reflects the reality of our economy.  

Defying Gravity

Overall, 2019 was quite a year with most indexes increasing by roughly a third.  From a historical perspective, the period from 2010 through 2019 was the first contiguous decade in the history of the market without a recession[1].  During this period, we had only one (2018) negative year.

The gains of 2019 were phenomenal in light of the many headwinds facing investors heading into, and throughout, the year:

A Return to Rationality

In July, the current U.S. expansion became the longest on record. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter increased at an annual rate of 2.1% and there are still new jobs being created. While these and other government figures suggest that U.S. and global economies are continuing to expand, there is growing evidence of weakening economies internationally and signs that the current U.S. expansion is losing momentum.

Waste Connections (WCN) – “Every Tuesday and Thursday”

Company:         Waste Connections (WCN)
Sector:                Industrials – Waste and Environmental Services
Price/Market Cap:                        $83/$22B
Target Price/Implied Upside:     $107/30%

Thesis
Waste Connections (WCN) is the third largest waste disposal company in North America, and the only company focused on secondary and exclusive markets.  The company has flourished behind the leadership of a seasoned management team focused on consolidating fragmented niche markets where they can streamline operations, exert pricing power, and improve profitability.