What if a Recession is the Cure?

“Most of the time, the end of the world does not happen. “ — Howard Marks, Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management

As we close the first quarter of 2022, all signs point to our economy moving into a new stage of the business cycle. We are past the peak and rolling into the earliest stages of contraction. After laying the groundwork for months, the Federal Reserve Bank officially began raising interest rates earlier this year. Their goal is to dampen inflation which has now increased to alarming levels and is affecting businesses and families across the socioeconomic spectrum. The Fed has most likely taken too long to act, and they are removing stimulus that was too excessive and lasted for too long.  While the Fed’s quick action likely saved our economy from the worst possible outcomes during the pandemic, we are now surrounded by inflation that is having real world impact.  

The Hidden Tax

Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair. -Sam Ewing (author)

We ended 2021 similar to how we began, challenged by Covid as the virus continues to alter holiday plans, disrupt commerce and frustrate a world weary of the conversation. Covid was supposed to be conquered by this point, but virus mutations and vaccine hesitancy have allowed this visitor to remain with us.  What is different this time around is the Omicron variant appears to be more prevalent, but less deadly. Hospitalization risk appears to be 1/3[3] that of the Delta variant but, given that Omicron is more infectious and has a shorter incubation period, hospitalizations are going up. We began 2022 with an all-time high of 1 million active new U.S. cases.

There’s a Playbook for That

The S&P 500 is up 14.4% for the first half of 2021. Much of these gains were triggered by companies announcing positive earnings expectations for the second half of the year. A record 64% of companies that provided guidance exceeded Wall Street Analyst projections. Most companies have positioned the pandemic in the rear-view mirror and expect things to get better from here.  Meanwhile, the Market continues to hit all-time highs, while Wall Street seems to be overly conservative on future prospects.  The source of caution stems from expected inflation.